Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This game definitely sets up to be a pitcher’s duel, especially with how weak these offenses have been lately. For the Twins it’s just a question of health, and their injury-plagued lineup struggles on a normal day much less against Corbin Burnes. I think we’re seeing the usual version of Burnes now after a slow start to the season, posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over his past 3 starts.
But this Brewers lineup doesn’t scare me one bit, and certainly not after they were pretty much dominated by awful Oakland pitching over the weekend. Things will get tougher for them against Pablo Lopez here, who finally looked like himself in holding down the excellent Tampa offense last week. Neither team tends to score much in the first 5 innings of games, so with strong starters going tonight I’ll count on limited runs early on.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Detroit Tigers Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The Braves have created some question marks around themselves lately, and two straight losses to bad teams aren’t helping. But this team is too good to slump for very long, and tonight might be an opportunity to break out.
They’ll face Detroit pitching prospect Reese Olson, who only has two big-league starts. Both of those came against teams with struggling offenses, especially against righties, so he’s been lucky. That luck probably runs out tonight, as I see the Braves teeing off.
And this total is relatively low thanks to Spencer Strider starting for Atlanta, but cracks are showing for the excellent Braves righty lately. His ERA climbed steadily all May and has allowed 20 runs over his past 5 starts, 4 of which went over this total. With the Tigers finding some offense lately and finally breaking their losing streak yesterday, they should be able to help get this game over the number.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels First 5 Innings ML @ Texas Rangers (+115; Odds via BetMGM): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
Yesterday was a great first-five innings matchup for Texas, but today that has flipped to favor the Angels. It’s mostly because the Rangers are calling up Cody Bradford for a spot start here, and his previous two visits to the majors have not gone well.
He made it through five innings in both, but had his team in a hole in both instances. I think that continues tonight against an Angels team that’s excellent against lefties like Bradford, plus they actually hit better on the road. And I’m also confident LA won’t need to do all that much scoring with Jaime Barria getting the start.
Barria has had to earn his way into the starting rotation, but he’s a great matchup for LA against a Rangers lineup with just a .190 average and .453 OPS cumulatively against him. If the normally powerful Texas bats stay quiet, then the Angels should jump on a bad pitcher for an early lead tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Chicago White Sox @ LA Dodgers -1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Laying the run line with the Dodgers at home is one of the more square plays I can make, but this one looks fairly easy to me. I don’t trust the White Sox at all, and don’t see how they pick themselves up after consecutive 9th-inning losses over the weekend.
Going on the road where they’re a bottom-5 offense doesn’t help, nor does facing Tony Gonsolin. The Dodger righty has been terrific at home again, and the White Sox are also a bottom-5 offense against right-handed pitching.
I also like that LA had a day off after a tough road trip, and I think that helps them light up Lance Lynn tonight. Lynn has allowed 3-plus runs in his past 6 road starts, and faces a Dodgers lineup that’s one of the absolute best against righties. Of Chicago’s 38 losses this year 29 have been by multiple runs, and I see another coming here for this bad road team.
Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each): Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) and Over 0.5 RBI (+155; Odds via DraftKings)
Freeman doesn’t have a good history against Lynn, but this version of the Chicago starter should make things easier. Lynn is getting crushed by left-handed bats, allowing a .362 average and 1.115 OPS this year. Freeman had an excellent road trip with 9 hits, 19 total bases, and 9 RBI in the 6 games. He’s hitting even better at home this season, and I think his bat stays hot tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland A’s ML (+185; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
The Oakland Athletics have won six(!) games in a row. Yes, those Oakland A’s, and yes, I’m trying to grapple with the reality of it myself. Betting on this team still feels like it requires a haz-mat suit, but tonight really boils down to an issue of price. Even after this run of strange success you still need to lay well over 2 dollars to fade Oakland, and that makes the take-back too enticing to pass up.
It’s baseball’s winningest team they’re up against here, but Tampa is also throwing a bullpen game with their staff fairly worn out. I’m definitely not laying it at this price, so I guess it’s time to hold my nose and take a shot on the juicy return with an inexplicably hot team.
Tiny Nick is 1344-1185 ATS (+68.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.